I was experiencing the same issue and solved it. It comes down to aodeploy having no logging when something goes wrong. The issue is simply that your a0deploy machine to machine application you are using to run the deploy commands through doesnt have the required scopes. I can only assume the required scopes have changed sometime recently.
Anyway, solution is to just go into your m2m application and update its scopes (i set it to all scopes since im the only one who uses it. If you want to be more secure about it you can whackamole trying new scopes until it works.